North Texas Roundup SYC / RCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 11:00 AM

Arlington ESports Stadium - Arlington, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Joanna	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
2	TANG Melody Fujiao	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
3	WANG Amabel	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	72%
3	ZOU Ella	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
5	PARK Zena	-	-	-	3%	15%	43%	39%
6	LEE Jeemin	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	20%	2%
7	DUAN Sophie	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
8	LI Savannah	-	3%	17%	37%	31%	10%	1%
9	BROWN Lola	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
10	LIN Yunong	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	29%	7%
11	ZEE Savannah	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	20%	2%
12	WANG DINA C.	-	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	6%
13	PARK Lauren	-	1%	12%	42%	37%	8%	1%
14	HAN Gian	-	-	1%	8%	29%	45%	18%
15	LI Olivia	-	-	2%	12%	38%	41%	7%
16	HAFEZ Sahar	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
17	MCSHERRY Kayla	-	-	2%	17%	42%	34%	4%
18	WANG Doreen	3%	19%	38%	29%	10%	1%	-
19	ORRINGER Lottie	-	-	3%	17%	38%	35%	7%
20	LAI Miranda	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
21	FRASER Morgan	-	3%	19%	38%	30%	8%	1%
22	LI Alice	-	-	4%	20%	39%	31%	5%
23	GOITIA Genevieve	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
24	CHANG Olivia	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
25	WATSON Evelyn	14%	57%	26%	3%	-	-	-
26	PECK Madeleine	5%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-	-
26	MALIK Manha	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
28	DERSHEM Abby	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
29	SINGH Evangelina	1%	15%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
30	NWODO Naila	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
31	LI Emma Jing	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
32	QIN Selina	< 1%	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%
33	KENSICKI Phoebe	1%	8%	27%	36%	21%	5%	-
34	SHANG Arianna	6%	34%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
35	KIM Natalie	6%	25%	37%	24%	6%	1%	-
36	LEE Lauren Jinju	-	-	6%	29%	49%	15%	1%
37	ZHOU Joi	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
38	ETIKALA Saanvi	37%	42%	18%	3%	-	-	-
39	DUVVA Sanika	11%	34%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
40	TELEB Farida	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%	-
41	KUTATELADZE Anna	-	12%	43%	34%	10%	1%	-
42	FENG Esther	38%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
43	CHIN Riley	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-	-
44	HO Peyton	< 1%	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
45	SCHULTZ Sumi	6%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-	-
46	WU Emma	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
47	HU Sophie	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
48	FENG Christy	71%	27%	2%	-	-	-	-
49	TORNBERG Reagan	1%	29%	43%	22%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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