North Texas Roundup SYC / RCC

Cadet Women's Saber

Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 2:30 PM

Arlington ESports Stadium - Arlington, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KINKADE Ellie	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	24%
2	BUSH Bethany	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
3	DANTULURI Shalini	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
3	FAVO Isabella	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
5	LUKER Sophia	-	-	-	2%	24%	73%
6	LIU Hannah	-	1%	9%	34%	46%	9%
7	KHOST Maeve	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
8	MALLAMPATI Jaabili	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
9	LIN Nicole	-	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	16%
10	SADANI Jyotika	1%	6%	23%	38%	25%	7%	1%
11	HUGHES-WILLIAMS Adelayde	-	-	5%	24%	45%	25%
12	BAERENWALD Welles	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
13	LUKER Hannah	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
14	XU Kaylyn	1%	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
15	GARRETT Madrid	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
16	ZHOU Ziling	25%	43%	25%	7%	1%	-
17	MOON Claire	3%	20%	41%	29%	6%	-
18	KIM Karen	17%	40%	31%	11%	2%	-
19	NADKARNI Marisa	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
20	BANGALORE Shriya	14%	39%	33%	11%	2%	-
21	KITSON Sasha	13%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
22	REAVIS Isabel	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
23	YUEN Nicole	3%	20%	40%	29%	6%	-
24	YE Madeleine	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
25	SENTHIL Tejas	33%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
26	KIM Audrey	9%	30%	37%	19%	5%	-	-
27	DANTULURI Shivani	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-
28	CONG Anne	< 1%	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
29	NGUYEN Madeleine	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
29	YOO Audrey	32%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
31	JARIS Sparrow	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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