11th Annual Little Musketeers RYC / RCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	-	-	5%	95%
2	BAE Yooju	-	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
3	DUAN Sophie	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
3	HAN Gian	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
5	LI Joy	-	-	4%	24%	49%	23%
6	YAO Abby	-	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
7	SOE Hayleigh	-	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	14%
8	KIM Sydney	-	-	2%	13%	44%	41%
9	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
10	YU Sophie	-	1%	7%	23%	38%	26%	5%
11	WANG Doreen	-	4%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
12	DENG Claire	-	3%	15%	32%	34%	14%	-
13	PARK Lauren	-	-	3%	16%	37%	36%	8%
14	HOM Avery	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
15	KENSICKI Phoebe	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	12%	1%
16	FAN Sophia	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
17	LING Camryn	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	25%	5%
18	HUGHES Olivia	-	6%	24%	36%	25%	7%	1%
19	LIM Kensie	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
20	CHEN Madeleine	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
21	CHANG Olivia	1%	9%	32%	41%	16%	2%
22	LAU Shu Yeung Sophia	-	6%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
23	LUCAS Ava	2%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
24	OLSHANSKY Dalia	-	1%	9%	26%	38%	23%	3%
25	ZEE Savannah	-	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
26	ZHOU Joi	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%	-
27	LIU Ashley	4%	24%	43%	25%	5%	-
28	SAIFEE Zahra	1%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%	-
28	ZHANG Queeny	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
30	ZHAO Olivia	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
31	CHO Karis	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
32	XI Sophia	9%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-	-
33	LIM Kora	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
34	SANTIAGO Rania	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
35	ZHANG Hannah	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
36	HOM Emma	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%	-
37	NAYGAS Alexandra	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
38	BENNYHOFF Myla	10%	40%	37%	12%	1%	-
39	WANG Yanxuan(Alicia)	2%	22%	39%	27%	9%	1%	-
40	DESAI Zoya	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
41	CHUN Ami	42%	40%	15%	2%	-	-	-
42	YUNG Zoe	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
43	MCLANAHAN Jasmine	6%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-	-
44	DAM Sofi	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
45	VIERTEL Etta	53%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
46	KIM Phoebe	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
47	YATAVELLI Aria	75%	23%	3%	-	-	-	-
48	GOWDA Slyona	42%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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