11th Annual Little Musketeers RYC / RCC

Y-14 Women's Saber

Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 4:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG XUANYI	-	-	-	-	2%	18%	81%
2	CHAN Jolene	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
3	FENG Alicia G.	-	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
3	JIANG Evelyn	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
5	LIN Elaine	-	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	15%
6	LEI Zitong (Meya)	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
7	CHEN Colette	-	1%	6%	27%	46%	20%
8	LIU kai yin aria	-	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
9	SHEARER Alena	-	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	26%
10	MUNGUIA Mila	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
11	WANG Jiayi	1%	10%	31%	39%	18%
12	KIM Alexia	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
13	LIU Hannah	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
14	HAN Emma	2%	18%	37%	30%	11%	2%	-
15	LIN Annika	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
16	LIAO Jieni	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
17	LEE Madeleine	4%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
18	YUEN Nicole	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
19	CHEN Elaine	-	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	23%
20	DANG Madeleine	2%	17%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
21	CAI Veronica	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
22	LONG Chloe	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%	-
23	KIM Satie	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
24	JOHNSON Heaven	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
25	YU Stella	7%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
26	YU Skylar	1%	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
27	NING Lynn	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%
28	OCA Merci	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%	1%
29	HSIEH Lucia	7%	39%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
30	ZHANG JADY	1%	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
31	KIM Saeren	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%
32	CHANG Kaitlyn	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-
33	LIN Ariel	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
34	LONG Jessie	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%
35	CAMACHO Keila	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
36	XU Rachel	9%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-
37	KIM Alice	34%	43%	19%	3%	-	-
38	KIM Yeju	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%
38	KIRBY Skye	42%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-
40	CAI Joanna	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%
41	MEI Chloe	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-
42	PANCHAL Arya	2%	16%	42%	31%	8%	1%
43	WELCH Greta	1%	12%	38%	36%	11%	1%	-
43	HENRY Erin	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-
45	WALLIS Allie	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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