11th Annual Little Musketeers RYC / RCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
2	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	-	4%	96%
3	HSU Kaylin	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
3	ZHANG Ivy	-	1%	7%	37%	55%
5	DESAI Esha	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
6	BAE Yooju	-	-	1%	8%	40%	52%
7	LI Joy	-	1%	10%	36%	48%	6%
8	DUAN Sophie	-	-	5%	31%	64%
9	HAN Gian	-	-	4%	23%	52%	21%
10	CUI alivia	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
11	POEI Lauren	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
12	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	-	3%	23%	48%	25%
13	DENG Claire	6%	31%	44%	17%	2%
14	ANDONIAN Lauren	1%	7%	23%	34%	26%	8%	1%
15	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
16	LIU Samantha	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
17	MONAT Jennifer	-	2%	16%	42%	39%	1%
18	WILLIAMSON Tessa	1%	6%	21%	34%	28%	10%	1%
19	VILLARAMA Kara	-	2%	24%	46%	24%	4%
20	WANG Yanxuan(Alicia)	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%	-
21	WANG Doreen	12%	38%	37%	11%	1%
22	YAO Abby	1%	12%	37%	41%	8%
23	GUO Audrey	2%	13%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
24	BENNYHOFF Naia	2%	17%	39%	33%	8%	-
25	PEDERSEN Haley	-	5%	41%	41%	12%	1%
25	WU Chingfei Amber	7%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-
27	NGUYEN Chloe	41%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
28	KIM Sydney	-	6%	30%	48%	15%
29	LING Camryn	4%	23%	44%	25%	4%	-
30	PARK Lauren	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
31	ZEE Savannah	4%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%	-
32	ZHOU Joi	13%	33%	33%	17%	4%	-	-
33	LIU Ashley	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
34	LUCAS Ava	15%	41%	34%	9%	1%
35	MA Yifei (Olivia)	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
36	HUGHES Olivia	1%	10%	35%	41%	12%	1%
37	HOM Avery	23%	46%	26%	5%	-
38	FAN Sophia	25%	44%	25%	5%	-
39	CHEN Madeleine	32%	46%	19%	2%	-
40	ZHANG Queeny	23%	65%	11%	1%	-	-
41	ZOU JIAYING	30%	46%	21%	3%	-	-
42	OLSHANSKY Dalia	3%	20%	41%	30%	6%	-
43	BUI Aubrie	10%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
44	CHANG Olivia	3%	20%	41%	30%	6%	-
45	CHO Karis	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
46	YATAVELLI Aria	68%	30%	1%	-	-	-
47	CHUN Ami	40%	42%	16%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.