11th Annual Little Musketeers RYC / RCC

Cadet Women's Saber

Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG XUANYI	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
2	FANG Victoria W.	-	-	-	4%	31%	64%
3	GOLOVITSER Maya	-	1%	8%	35%	46%	10%
3	BORDAS HILL Georgiana	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
5	LEE Lauren	-	-	2%	12%	30%	37%	18%
6	KIM Alexia	1%	11%	37%	36%	13%	1%
7	CHAN Jolene	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
8	LIN Elaine	-	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	3%
9	MUNGUIA Mila	-	1%	9%	33%	42%	15%
10	LIU Hannah	-	5%	26%	42%	23%	4%
11	LEI Zitong (Meya)	-	1%	6%	24%	39%	26%	4%
12	CAI Veronica	-	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
13	FENG Alicia G.	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
14	JEFFORDS Sophia	-	4%	27%	46%	21%	2%
15	PHAN Genevieve	7%	53%	34%	7%	-	-
16	KIM Satie	2%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
17	WANG Jiayi	-	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	1%
18	LIN Annika	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
19	LONG Jessie	-	14%	45%	33%	7%	-
20	YUEN Nicole	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-
21	CHEN Elaine	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
22	CHEN Colette	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
23	HAN Emma	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	1%
24	SAAD Alia	2%	23%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-
25	BAIRD Kaleah	35%	43%	18%	4%	-	-
26	KIM Alice	22%	48%	25%	5%	-	-
27	AMELANG Raquel	2%	26%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
28	SHEARER Alena	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
29	KIRBY Skye	58%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-
30	HENRY Erin	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-
31	WALLIS Allie	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-
32	PANCHAL Arya	46%	43%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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