The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Motor City RYC / RJCC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 1:00 PM

UWM Sports Complex - Pontiac, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	WANG ANDREW CHANG	-	-	1%	17%	81%
2	GONG zihao	-	3%	17%	37%	34%	9%
3	GONG ziqian	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
3	KIM Kendrick	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
5	WANG Michael	1%	9%	31%	38%	18%	3%
6	WANG Max	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
7	HUA Michael	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	3%
8	HU Harry	2%	12%	32%	35%	17%	2%
9	PARKILA Lukas	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
10	CHENHE YuHan	18%	43%	31%	8%	-
11	CHEN Lucas	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
12	HIBINO Uta	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
13	KANIA Alexander	26%	48%	24%	2%	-
14	TURNER Benjamin	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
15	ZHU Matthew	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-
16	ZALEVSKY Liam	2%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
17	RAMANI Ari	1%	19%	47%	31%	2%
18	MBERIA Alexander	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
19	BUCKLEY Owen	6%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
20	RAVOOR Suvir	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
21	ZHANG Zimou	7%	31%	43%	19%	1%
22	KAAKEH Mohammad	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%	1%
23	HWANG Evan	5%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.