Motor City RYC / RJCC

Cadet Men's Saber

Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 8:00 AM

UWM Sports Complex - Pontiac, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HERNANDEZ Stanton	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
2	WANG Max	1%	11%	42%	35%	10%	1%
3	CHEN Samuel	-	2%	18%	44%	30%	6%
3	WANG ANDREW CHANG	-	-	3%	20%	46%	30%
5	KIM Kendrick	-	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%
6	HUA Michael	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	10%
7	SIDDIQUI Shayan	-	-	7%	29%	44%	20%
8	WANG Michael	1%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
9	WANG William	-	-	7%	29%	43%	21%
10	SUN Bill	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
11	GONG zihao	-	2%	9%	23%	34%	25%	7%
12	WAGNER Elijah	-	4%	27%	42%	23%	4%
13	HENDERSON Lucas	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	15%
14	GERSTMANN Max T.	-	1%	5%	18%	33%	31%	12%
15	KO Zuriel	-	-	7%	28%	44%	21%
16	WILKINSON James	1%	7%	22%	33%	25%	10%	2%
17	WANG Weiyun	1%	8%	32%	39%	17%	2%
18	PARKILA Lukas	2%	11%	27%	32%	21%	7%	1%
19	WELLER Noah	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
20	GONG ziqian	-	4%	22%	41%	28%	6%
21	SUN Andrew	-	3%	24%	42%	26%	5%
22	TURNER Benjamin	18%	36%	30%	13%	3%	-	-
23	PERRY Gwydion	20%	48%	26%	6%	-	-
24	BARROWS Hunter	16%	54%	25%	4%	-	-
25	RAVOOR Sahas	36%	51%	12%	1%	-	-
26	ZHU Matthew	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-
27	HIBINO Uta	3%	15%	31%	30%	16%	4%	-
28	RAMANI Ari	48%	42%	10%	1%	-	-
29	KAAKEH Mohammad	65%	32%	3%	-	-	-
30	ZALEVSKY Liam	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
30	ROTH Adam	45%	47%	7%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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