Central Texas Barbarian Bash RJCC / RYC

Junior Men's Saber

Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Austin Sports Center - Cedar Park - Cedar Park, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ROE Finnegan	-	-	-	< 1%	4%	26%	70%
2	HUBLALL Ethan	-	-	3%	19%	46%	31%
3	HAMMERS Neel	2%	15%	36%	34%	13%	1%
3	VEDRE Neil	-	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
5	ZHOU William	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
6	CUNNINGHAM-SNELSON Aahil	-	-	3%	20%	47%	29%
7	MEADE Liam R.	1%	8%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
8	XUE Leo	2%	14%	36%	35%	13%	1%
9	KITSON Chase	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
10	RAMSEY Alexander	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
11	NAMBIAR Navin	3%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
12	LIN Lucas	1%	10%	37%	38%	13%	1%
13	HOU Yifan	8%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
14	KWON kenneth	3%	24%	40%	25%	7%	1%
15	KERCHER Alexander	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	6%
16	ZHOU James Y.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
17	ZHANG Kaixuan	-	4%	16%	32%	33%	14%	1%
18	SEALE Cougar	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
19	KOTVALI Aneesh	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%	-
20	ZLATINSKI Jason	1%	14%	34%	34%	15%	2%
21	MARTYNEK Santiago	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
22	RAY Evan	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%	1%
23	LAVALLE Lincoln	2%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%
24	BOLLU Viren	4%	20%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
25	SON Kevin	-	3%	15%	35%	36%	12%
26	LIU Guanyu	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
27	THOMAS Christian	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-
28	HONG Sungwon	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
29	BRENNAN Cole	16%	36%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
30	MURRAY Braeden	3%	20%	45%	26%	6%	-
31	SARWATE Keegan	2%	41%	44%	12%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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