NJFA RYC / RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:00 AM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Joanna	-	-	-	-	5%	36%	59%
2	JOO Natalie	-	-	8%	31%	42%	19%
3	MCFARLANE Asha	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
3	CHEN Sophie	-	4%	22%	41%	28%	5%
5	LI Savannah	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
6	DONG Iris	-	-	-	3%	23%	54%	19%
7	ELNAGGAR lily	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
8	HUANG Sophie	-	6%	28%	39%	22%	4%
9	ARRAIANO Olivia R.	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
10	CAI Ilana	-	2%	20%	53%	23%	2%
11	LIU Caydence	-	4%	24%	42%	26%	4%
12	KIM Claire	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
13	KRAHE Annika	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
14	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	10%	49%	32%	8%	1%	-
15	REZA Fukaina	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	8%
16	PEDERSEN Clara	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
17	HUSSIAN Annabelle	-	1%	9%	35%	42%	12%	1%
18	ORBÉ-AUSTIN Maya	8%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%
19	BAULIN Zoya	23%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
20	ZHANG Zoey	-	3%	19%	44%	29%	5%	-
21	WAN Celine	22%	45%	28%	5%	-	-
22	CHOI Cara	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
23	LENZ Phoebe	31%	45%	20%	3%	-	-	-
24	JI Dora YuanDao	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-
25	GUPTA-NWANZE Nisa	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	11%
26	NICUDEMUS Bryella	12%	46%	32%	9%	1%	-
27	LYON Claire	-	8%	33%	40%	17%	2%
28	HUDSON Sophie	11%	37%	38%	12%	1%	-	-
29	PEVZNER Sophia	15%	42%	34%	9%	1%	-	-
30	HOLLIS Priscillia	61%	33%	5%	-	-	-
31	VACCARO Lillian	2%	13%	33%	34%	16%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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