NJFA RYC / RJCC

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 12:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KORFONTA Jolie	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
2	GAJJALA Sharika R.	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
3	LI Fei	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	22%
3	BASRALIAN Azniv	-	-	4%	23%	45%	26%	1%
5	FURMAN Maria	-	-	5%	26%	54%	16%
6	LEE Claire	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
7	SHANKERDAS Shreeya	5%	30%	42%	20%	3%	-
8	COLELLA Lauren	10%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
9	NGUYEN Kira	-	-	-	3%	32%	65%
10	NOVOJILOV Anastasia	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	6%
11	KUMAR Eva	-	3%	14%	36%	37%	9%
12	WANG Trinity	-	-	3%	22%	44%	29%	2%
13	ZHU Serene M.	-	-	2%	13%	40%	44%
14	SUICO Kyubi Emmanuelle	2%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%	-
15	PRESMAN Aerin	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	1%
16	BRAGG Leah	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
17	PROFIS Liora	-	1%	7%	29%	45%	19%
18	SHU Youshan	-	-	3%	18%	45%	35%
19	REKEDA Anna	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	1%
20	MISHIMA Audrey	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
21	KOVALCHUK Erika S.	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
22	DESAI Meera P.	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
23	LIN Laura	2%	16%	40%	32%	9%	1%
24	ELKHATEEB Fajr	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
25	FANG Kayla	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
26	LIN Victoria T.	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
27	NGUYEN Ashley L.	3%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
28	ORAEDU Dilinna	-	3%	19%	41%	29%	7%	-
29	CHANG Chloe	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
30	MEYER Rachel	3%	25%	40%	25%	6%	-
31	KRAJA Emma	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
32	PARSONS Leada	3%	22%	42%	28%	5%	-
33	MEYER Rebecca	3%	22%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
34	YOU Isabel B.	-	6%	27%	42%	21%	3%
35	FAKTOR Emily	20%	47%	27%	6%	-	-	-
36	MILLER Cassandra	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
37	WANG Selina	23%	47%	25%	5%	-	-
38	SHAKIR Inaaya	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	2%
38	JUDICKE Olivia	3%	22%	43%	28%	5%	-
40	YANG Charlotte	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
41	PHELAN Gabrielle	64%	30%	5%	-	-	-
42	SATO Elyse	36%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
43	GEFFNER Olivia	42%	44%	13%	2%	-	-	-
44	LEEB Zoe	39%	45%	15%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.