Rain City Fall RJCC+Div II ROC

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 2:30 PM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WUJASTYK Leon	-	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%
2	LISONDRA Niko	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	22%
3	TALASILA Arush	2%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
3	WONG Yuheng Isaac	-	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%
5	CHEN Charlie Tian-You	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
6	HUANG Jonathan	-	-	4%	19%	40%	30%	7%
7	LEE Jayden	-	4%	18%	38%	34%	7%
8	CHUNG Yeongbin	-	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
9	ROZALSKI Eli	-	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
10	LI Toby	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
11	LI Samuel	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
12	LIU Zixian (Aaron)	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
13	CHAN Ian	-	-	4%	22%	43%	31%
14	LAK Isaac	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
15	ROSSMAN Brock	1%	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
16	NEICE William	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
17	FECAROTTA Ryan	1%	16%	42%	32%	8%	1%	-
18	TONKOVICH Ryan	-	4%	25%	41%	25%	5%
19	WU Alistair	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
20	CHRISTIAN Jonathan	1%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
21	ANWEILER Nathan	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
22	HSIAO Nicholas	1%	16%	36%	33%	13%	2%
23	CHONG Tristan	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
24	COSGROVE Jameson	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
25	GOWDA Sumeru	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
26	HARROCH Faustin	5%	50%	35%	9%	1%	-
27	BERTONE Charles A.	1%	13%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
28	WANG Li	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
28	SUNDSTROM Wren	76%	21%	2%	-	-	-
30	CHOI Elliot	86%	13%	-	-	-	-
31	BIRK Francisco	78%	21%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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