GRAFA RYC & Y8\RJCC\ROC\Vet - Third Coast Cup

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 8:00 AM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	-	2%	20%	78%
2	ZHENG Marcus	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
3	FANG Haoyu	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
3	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
5	GE Felix Fei	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
6	WANG Caleb	-	-	1%	8%	30%	44%	17%
7	BILLIET Greyson	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
8	ZHANG Hanson	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	2%
9	DEBORD Beckett	-	-	3%	16%	39%	34%	7%
10	PAYNE Lynas	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%	1%
11	MCGRATH Milo	-	1%	9%	27%	39%	22%	1%
12	CHASE Crosby	1%	11%	31%	35%	17%	4%	-
13	ZHAO Jason	-	3%	19%	37%	31%	9%	1%
14	HALLETTMANES Ezra	3%	17%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
15	ZHENG Lerui	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
16	CHAN William	32%	43%	21%	5%	-	-	-
17	GREULICH Nikolas	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	19%	2%
18	KOSCIK-AQUINO Nicholas	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
19	XUE Lucas	2%	13%	29%	33%	18%	5%	-
20	TAGORE Ayansh	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
21	JIAO Daniel	5%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
22	ZUIDEMA Harrison	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
23	SHUBITZ Jonathan	16%	44%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
24	NG Gavin	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
25	DEHAAN Dalton	3%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%	-
26	LI Andy	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	3%
27	SHAH Aadi	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
28	VOGEL Rylan	17%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
29	WILLIAMS Thomas	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
30	LIM-SEIWERT Cassian	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
31	SPADA Finnegan	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
32	HOLMES Elston	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
33	LUND Jonah	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	1%
34	ALTENHOF Nathaniel	6%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
35	VLIEM Henry	1%	11%	32%	38%	16%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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