GRAFA RYC & Y8\RJCC\ROC\Vet - Third Coast Cup

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 12:00 PM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Lucas	-	-	-	2%	15%	49%	34%
2	WONG Antonio	-	-	7%	37%	56%
3	EDWARDS Maxon	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	-	2%	16%	44%	38%
5	STRINGER David	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
6	TOWNE Benjamin	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
7	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	1%	8%	30%	44%	18%
8	VANOYEN Dominick	-	5%	32%	49%	14%
9	CHUANG Oscar	-	-	2%	13%	36%	39%	9%
10	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	-	1%	5%	20%	39%	31%	5%
11	MAVANI Krishna	-	10%	33%	38%	17%	2%
12	KUE Temujin	1%	12%	33%	37%	15%	2%
13	LEE Ian	-	8%	31%	40%	19%	2%
14	MASSIMINO Andrew	1%	14%	48%	32%	5%
15	HICKEY Connor	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	6%
16	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
17	HEYBOER Jason	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%	1%
18	LOCKWOOD Jacob	10%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
19	HAN Ethan	1%	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
20	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
21	ATKINSON JOSIAH	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
22	COPELAND Nigel	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	5%
23	NAZARIO Dominic	2%	15%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
24	NI Aaric	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-	-
25	HERRERA Xavier	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
26	YIN Zixin(Gavin)	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
27	KNIBBE Nathan	-	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
28	LEE Gidon	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
29	TATE Liam	3%	32%	41%	19%	4%	-
30	NEWMAN Noah	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
31	REAUME Nate	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
32	ZMUDA Aiden	5%	26%	40%	24%	6%	-	-
33	KENNEDY Michael	19%	54%	24%	3%	-
34	GOGOI Kavi	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
35	LIM-SEIWERT Tristan	35%	48%	15%	2%	-	-	-
36	KOLACKI Gabriel	61%	35%	4%	-	-
37	MILLER Maxwell	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
38	WALTERS Elias	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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