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Windy City SYC # 9/RCC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 8:30 AM

The Athletico Center - Northbrook, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	WANG Justin	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
2	WANG Daniel	-	-	-	4%	28%	67%
3	BONETTI Brayden	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
3	GONZALEZ Jake	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
5	SO Preston	-	-	3%	22%	46%	29%
6	VAID Luke	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
7	GONG Gavin	-	6%	26%	43%	23%	2%
8	GREMILLION Obadiah	-	2%	18%	43%	30%	6%
9	ANDRES Michael	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
10	WANG Max	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%	2%
11	WANG Max	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
11	ANAND Rishab	-	2%	12%	36%	42%	8%
13	LI Ayden	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
13	FANG Eason	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	2%
15	KANG Matthew	-	-	5%	26%	45%	23%
16	LIU Victor	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
17	LIU Aaron	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	4%
18	PARKILA Lukas	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%
19	NARDINI Nathanael P.	-	-	5%	21%	43%	30%
20	SALMAN Hamzah	7%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
21	HUA Michael	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
22	MANNINO Miller	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
23	CHEN Cooper	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
24	WANG tiger	3%	21%	44%	26%	6%	-
25	TANG Morgan	-	4%	23%	39%	27%	7%
26	CHENHE YuHan	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
27	HIBINO Uta	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
28	BRIMMER Robert (Trey)	2%	13%	33%	35%	16%	2%
29	RIVERA Vivek	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-
30	ZHANG KAIQI	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
31	ZHU Matthew	10%	33%	38%	17%	2%	-
32	WANG Tim	4%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
33	FIROOZI Sam	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
34	NAFTALI Ori	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
35	KANIA Alexander	-	4%	20%	43%	30%	3%
36	KIM David	6%	29%	41%	20%	3%	-
37	TURNER Benjamin	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
37	MBERIA Alexander	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
39	BUTKUS Nathan	2%	13%	33%	36%	16%	1%
40	SERLIN Edvin	8%	35%	39%	16%	2%	-
41	YANG Justin	27%	47%	22%	4%	-	-
42	LIN Patrick	28%	47%	22%	4%	-	-
43	BALES Gabriel	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
44	BROOKS Drake	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
45	YUEN Caleb	2%	16%	37%	34%	10%	1%
45	MARCISZ Maksym	36%	48%	14%	1%	-	-
47	LIU Jayden	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
47	NAGRANI Jai	33%	45%	18%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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