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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	LEE Brendan	-	1%	11%	42%	47%
2	OROPEZA David	-	5%	28%	49%	18%
3	MAO Lucas	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
3	VADEN Oliver	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
5	RAJ Jay	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
6	SENIC Lucas	-	-	2%	25%	73%
7	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
8	TWEMLOW Sacha	-	4%	25%	49%	21%
9	ZHAO Adam	-	1%	12%	48%	39%
10	RAJPAL Alastair	-	7%	36%	44%	13%
10	LU Kevin	-	-	4%	31%	65%
12	ALLEN Henry G.	-	1%	14%	50%	35%
13	CHOI Benjamin	1%	11%	38%	43%	7%
14	TAN Xinlai	1%	14%	40%	36%	9%
15	HEYBOER Jason	8%	37%	41%	13%	1%
16	HERRERA Xavier	52%	38%	10%	1%	-
17	HICKEY Connor	1%	9%	36%	45%	9%
18	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	3%	20%	41%	30%	7%
19	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
20	CHO Xzander	1%	9%	40%	40%	10%
21	KUE Temujin	6%	30%	42%	19%	3%
22	TURNER Jackson	43%	42%	14%	2%	-
23	HOWLAND Jonas	6%	31%	41%	19%	3%
24	SLUSHER Gideon	1%	13%	39%	37%	9%
25	YUE Jackson	10%	38%	38%	13%	1%
26	REAUME Nate	14%	44%	33%	9%	1%
27	NAIDL Josiah	8%	37%	41%	13%	1%
28	ZHONG Maxwell	2%	17%	40%	33%	8%
29	KIM Daniel	1%	31%	47%	19%	2%
30	NOTT Kobi	8%	47%	37%	8%	-
31	BONE Porter	23%	46%	26%	4%	-
32	PHONPRASANSACK Grayson	3%	24%	47%	23%	3%
33	LIU Yinhong	5%	28%	45%	20%	2%
34	PARKER Isaiah	1%	32%	47%	18%	2%
35	KNIBBE Nathan	2%	29%	52%	16%	1%
36	KOLACKI Gabriel	47%	42%	10%	1%	-
37	BALES Gabriel	51%	39%	9%	1%	-
38	MCCONKEY Tristan	17%	47%	30%	6%	-
39	CHUANG Oscar	1%	8%	32%	43%	16%
40	ZMUDA Aiden	25%	54%	19%	2%	-
41	FRASER Rhys	33%	47%	18%	2%	-
42	MOLDOVEANU Roman	53%	38%	9%	1%	-
43	YOUNG Jack	53%	40%	7%	-	-
44	LIM-SEIWERT Tristan	93%	7%	-	-	-
44	DAVIS Benjamin	77%	22%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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