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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FIORETTO Luca	-	-	1%	12%	50%	38%
2	BUERGENTHAL Aaron P.	-	-	1%	16%	70%	13%
3	RAI Avin	-	-	-	1%	20%	78%
3	LIU Kelly	-	-	-	-	6%	31%	63%
5	LAI Yat Hay Casper	-	-	-	5%	25%	44%	26%
6	ZHANG Michael (Jiayuan)	-	2%	14%	35%	35%	12%	1%
7	AL-NASSER Mahmoud	-	-	-	1%	21%	78%
8	AKS Ari	-	4%	27%	53%	16%
9	HANEY Vincent	-	-	4%	33%	62%
10	RIGHTLER Samuel	-	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
11	GERSTMANN Max T.	-	4%	26%	52%	18%
12	LIU Yizhe (Andy)	-	2%	17%	54%	26%	2%
13	HERNANDEZ Stanton	-	1%	8%	39%	53%
14	SCHARDINE James	-	-	4%	32%	55%	9%
15	BOUKHTIN Maxim	7%	35%	41%	16%	1%	-
16	WANG William	6%	29%	42%	19%	3%	-
17	ZHOU James Y.	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
18	SIDDIQUI Shayan	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
19	AMES Kylan	5%	41%	42%	11%	1%
20	FARIDI Imran	7%	32%	41%	18%	2%	-
21	LEE Hanho	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	8%	1%
22	HILL Quillan	4%	28%	40%	22%	5%	1%	-
23	HANEY Zachary	3%	24%	50%	21%	2%
24	STANISLAV Charles	33%	49%	16%	2%	-	-
25	BAUER Hank E.	-	-	3%	17%	47%	33%
26	WAGNER Elijah	3%	31%	47%	17%	2%
27	BATTISFORE Hunter	36%	46%	16%	2%	-	-
28	HUGHES Nathan	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
30	HU CHIEH-CHI	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%	-
31	JIANG Minghao	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	12%	2%
32	BOYLAN John R.	1%	12%	42%	40%	5%	-
33	KAUFFMAN Alex	36%	48%	15%	1%	-
34	PERRY Gwydion	24%	47%	26%	3%	-	-
35	IDRIS Haashir	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
36	DUDZIK Garrett	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
37	KRISHOCK Trey	48%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
38	VILLEGAS Aidan	33%	49%	16%	1%	-
39	PHILLIPSON Jack	77%	21%	2%	-	-
39	AMIN Brendan	9%	36%	40%	14%	2%	-
41	KASSEN Hudson	6%	43%	46%	5%	-	-
42	MONARCH Tom	1%	6%	23%	36%	26%	7%	-
43	LIU Penghua “Scott”	13%	43%	37%	6%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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