AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Cadet Women's Saber

Friday, October 6, 2023 at 4:00 PM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG XUANYI	-	-	-	-	5%	28%	67%
2	TSE Angelina	-	-	-	-	6%	36%	58%
3	YAM Danika	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
3	GAUTAM Sahana	-	-	-	4%	24%	51%	21%
5	XIONG Haojiao	-	-	-	3%	21%	47%	29%
6	TAN Adelyn	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
7	LIU Sydney	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
8	MANN Sophia J.	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
9	HU Michelle	-	-	4%	15%	32%	34%	14%
10	ZHAN Sophie	-	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%
11	GAY Sasha	-	4%	17%	33%	32%	13%	1%
12	GALYEMSKA Viktoriya	-	-	-	5%	26%	51%	17%
13	BAVIPATI smira	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%	1%
14	MOK Charlotte	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	12%	2%
15	YUEN Nicole	1%	11%	44%	34%	9%	1%	-
16	KANG Ellie	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
17	GRULICH Rayaana	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%
18	XA-CHIN Sara	1%	16%	37%	33%	13%	2%
19	REGANTI Sitara	-	4%	18%	33%	31%	12%	1%
20	LIN Elaine	1%	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
21	LIU Hannah	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%	-
22	DIECK Miranda P.	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%
23	STONE Coral	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	7%
24	JEFFORDS Sophia	1%	12%	33%	35%	15%	2%
25	MAO Elsa	-	2%	12%	35%	36%	14%	1%
26	LIN Annika	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	8%	-
27	LEMMEN Jasmijn	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-	-
28	CONG Anne	-	1%	10%	35%	40%	13%	1%
29	SAWANT Asmi	23%	40%	27%	9%	2%	-	-
30	WONG Cerise	5%	21%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
31	WU Chloe	17%	38%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
32	KITSON Sasha	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
33	CAI Veronica	7%	31%	38%	20%	4%	-
34	MAO anna	-	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	8%
35	HAN Emma	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
36	WANG Jiayi	1%	16%	37%	33%	12%	2%
37	CAO arissa	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	10%
38	ZHOU Ziling	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
39	JUNG Sienna	13%	56%	26%	4%	-	-	-
40	LEE Madeleine	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
41	BAERENWALD Welles	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
42	SUNG Isabella	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	1%	-
43	AMELANG Raquel	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
44	LONG Jessie	9%	30%	35%	19%	6%	1%	-
45	MCCORMICK Karley	85%	14%	1%	-	-	-
46	KIM Satie	21%	40%	28%	9%	2%	-	-
47	HENRY Erin	66%	30%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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