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AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Div I-A Men's Saber

Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HWANG Jayden	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	27%	4%
2	XU William	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
3	CHEN Howard	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
3	LEE Noah	-	-	3%	18%	42%	37%
5	HAO Anwen	-	-	34%	47%	17%	1%
6	ROSBERG Dashiell W.	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
7	KROON Lucas	-	-	24%	48%	25%	3%
8	POFF Kainoa	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
9	BYON Julian	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	22%	3%
10	MIYASAKI-CASTRO Masanobu	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	25%
11	LI Yiwei	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	3%
12	RAMANAN Govind	-	-	5%	22%	43%	29%
13	RIGGINS Littleton K.	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	6%
14	KHAVANDI Soheil	-	-	-	5%	35%	60%
15	YAN Kevin	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	19%	2%
16	YU Kevin	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
17	ZHAO Zhiyu	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
18	KIM ELIJAH	-	-	5%	24%	45%	26%
19	AERY FALLICK Ozzie	-	-	10%	38%	42%	11%
20	TUNG Ryan	3%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
21	LI linze	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%
22	RAMANAN Jaisimh	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	29%
23	ANUMULA Aryan	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
24	KO Zuriel	3%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%
25	LESUEUR Luke J.	-	4%	24%	43%	25%	5%
26	CHAN Aidan	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	7%
26	KANG Evan	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
28	TAN Ryan	9%	46%	35%	9%	1%	-
29	LI Seth	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%	-
30	LI Matthew	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
31	WANG HongXi	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
32	GIANETTO Ethan K.	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	8%
33	RAMTEKKAR Soham	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
34	LISKOVETS Alec	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
35	BUI Joseph	20%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-
36	ROSS Dash S.	13%	37%	34%	14%	2%	-
37	CONTRACTOR Cyrus	4%	20%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
38	HENRY Ethan	75%	25%	-	-	-	-
39	CRETEN joachim	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
40	LIN Lucas	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
41	VOSPER James	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
42	SUNG Julian	9%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
43	VENKATRAMAN Sudhir	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
44	BULLARD Bennett	1%	12%	33%	35%	15%	3%	-
45	BOWEI Yang	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
46	FLINN Ryan	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
47	MATHUR Ativ	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-
48	HRISTOV Kris	1%	15%	42%	32%	9%	1%
49	SEELMAN Cole	25%	74%	1%	-	-	-
49	LE Long	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
51	LI Li	27%	40%	24%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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