Remenyik ROC and RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:30 AM

Ryan Fieldhouse - Evanston, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	OISHI Megumi	-	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
2	BOIS Adele	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	LU Amy	-	-	1%	14%	48%	36%
3	SENOGLU Irmak	-	-	5%	24%	42%	26%	2%
5	ALFARACHE Gabriella C.	-	-	2%	34%	53%	11%
6	JOHNSON Dagny L.	-	-	2%	15%	49%	34%
7	DAVIS Jayna M.	-	2%	18%	40%	31%	8%	-
8	WANG Gloria Ruoyan	-	-	4%	50%	41%	5%
9	TABANGAY Heartlyn	-	2%	16%	39%	35%	7%
10	ENDO Miyuki N.	-	-	2%	17%	47%	34%
10	PABIAN Emilia	-	7%	30%	45%	16%	1%
10	ZHU TINGYI	1%	12%	37%	36%	13%	1%
13	TESTROET Aubrey	1%	11%	40%	38%	9%	1%
14	SAYSON Andrea	-	-	5%	23%	46%	26%
15	YU Meili	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	6%	-
16	POULAKIDAS Maria	72%	26%	2%	-	-	-	-
17	CHEN Xiaohan	-	-	-	3%	28%	69%
18	BROWN Delaney	1%	10%	39%	39%	10%	1%
19	SINGER Ellery	2%	24%	66%	7%	-	-
20	FAN Grace	1%	15%	38%	34%	12%	1%
21	WALLER London	4%	23%	43%	25%	5%	-
22	ZAWADA Milena	17%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
23	FALL-LAKATOS Jane	-	2%	19%	40%	31%	8%	-
24	ALDERFER Katherine	42%	44%	12%	1%	-	-
25	KIRBY Skye	24%	60%	16%	-	-	-
26	BUSHMAN MaeBelle	46%	45%	9%	1%	-	-
27	NEWMARK Ellie	10%	47%	34%	8%	1%	-	-
28	WILSON Sophie	37%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
29	JACHYMIAK Emilia	27%	51%	19%	2%	-	-
30	MCCAWLEY Madeleine	63%	34%	3%	-	-	-
31	SWEETLAND Lucy	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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