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Div I-A Women's Foil

Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 11:45 AM

Ryan Fieldhouse - Evanston, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Yejine	-	-	-	-	2%	38%	60%
2	PARK Rowan M.	-	-	-	-	5%	33%	62%
3	ZHAO Sophie L.	-	-	1%	10%	49%	40%
3	TAKAMIZAWA Yukari	-	-	-	-	3%	28%	69%
5	MATZ Samantha J.	-	-	1%	16%	45%	32%	6%
6	HALL Velma	-	-	-	-	8%	60%	31%
7	VASILE Karina	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
8	SERBAN Samantha M.	-	-	-	5%	30%	47%	18%
9	NAMGALAURI Mariam	-	-	-	5%	27%	45%	22%
10	PARK Leah	2%	19%	43%	30%	6%
11	CASTANEDA Keira	-	-	1%	14%	47%	33%	5%
12	WANDJI Anais	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
13	TONG Ophelia	-	-	-	7%	34%	43%	16%
14	BIODROWICZ Julia	-	-	5%	27%	45%	21%	2%
15	WANG CAROL	-	2%	23%	45%	25%	4%	-
16	COLLINS Anna	44%	42%	13%	1%	-
17	DOROSHKEVICH Taisiia	-	-	1%	10%	37%	44%	8%
18	GRIFFIN Emma G.	-	-	-	1%	12%	44%	44%
19	ERTUN Lal	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
20	KOSTELNY Alexis	-	-	-	6%	35%	48%	11%
21	COOPER Piper W.	-	1%	10%	50%	33%	6%	-
22	ISHANOVA Sofia	6%	37%	42%	14%	1%	-	-
23	SKOURLETOS Maria	-	2%	17%	61%	20%	1%	-
24	LI Grace	4%	23%	41%	25%	6%	-	-
25	SHELTON Olivia	16%	44%	35%	5%	-	-	-
26	URDANETA LARGURA Sylvia	21%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-
27	CABALU Alaina	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
28	BASSIK Eva	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	3%	-
29	HAYES Alyssa R.	-	-	1%	23%	65%	10%	-
30	LEE Fiona E.	1%	12%	38%	39%	10%
31	MUSTO Isabella	4%	24%	42%	25%	5%	-
32	BAWA Sahana	1%	9%	30%	40%	18%	2%
33	HOOGSTRA Lucy	14%	45%	36%	4%	-	-	-
34	CAMPBELL June	3%	29%	46%	20%	2%	-	-
35	MALVESTUTO Evelyn	31%	48%	20%	1%	-	-	-
36	LEE Claire L.	-	7%	41%	39%	12%	1%	-
37	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	12%	41%	35%	11%	1%	-	-
38	LOVAN Audrey	19%	47%	31%	3%	-	-	-
39	MADSEN Lindsey	46%	46%	7%	-	-	-	-
40	SWOPE Farren	-	9%	35%	43%	12%	1%	-
41	KANG Marian	37%	47%	15%	1%	-	-	-
42	VELAZQUEZ Rosa T.	16%	44%	32%	8%	1%
43	LOVE Brianna	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
44	SHEBL Nadia	37%	53%	10%	1%	-	-	-
45	YASUZAWA Abby	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-	-
46	TAYLOR-OSBORN Nadia	22%	48%	28%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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