Remenyik ROC and RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 10:30 AM

Ryan Fieldhouse - Evanston, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ERTUN Lal	-	-	3%	20%	45%	31%
2	NAMGALAURI Mariam	-	-	-	7%	38%	54%
3	GRIFFIN Emma G.	-	-	-	-	-	11%	88%
3	BIODROWICZ Julia	-	-	2%	19%	47%	32%
5	HUNG Juliana K.	-	-	-	-	1%	12%	88%
6	CASTANEDA Keira	-	-	4%	28%	51%	17%
7	HAYES Alyssa R.	-	-	3%	26%	55%	16%
8	WANG CAROL	-	3%	18%	46%	28%	5%
9	DOROSHKEVICH Taisiia	-	-	-	3%	31%	66%
10	HALL Velma	-	-	-	1%	29%	69%
11	KOSTELNY Alexis	-	-	2%	20%	50%	28%
12	HAN Katherine	2%	20%	44%	31%	3%	-
13	LEE Fiona E.	-	-	4%	20%	44%	30%	2%
14	WANDJI Anais	-	-	1%	14%	64%	22%
15	BAWA Sahana	-	2%	18%	44%	29%	6%
16	PARK Leah	-	-	4%	21%	45%	28%	1%
17	COOPER Piper W.	-	-	3%	23%	47%	26%
18	MUSTO Isabella	-	2%	12%	34%	37%	15%	1%
18	BASSIK Eva	-	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	1%
20	SKOURLETOS Maria	-	3%	27%	51%	18%	1%
21	TUCKER ALARCON Frida	-	4%	23%	48%	23%	3%
22	LI Grace	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%	-
23	COLLINS Anna	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-
24	HOOGSTRA Lucy	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-	-
25	CROMWELL Keira	2%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%	-
26	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	8%	37%	40%	14%	1%	-
27	ISHANOVA Sofia	14%	42%	34%	8%	1%	-
28	BLAKEY Heaven	8%	35%	41%	14%	2%	-
29	MARTIRE Alessandra	1%	13%	50%	31%	5%	-
30	URDANETA LARGURA Sylvia	8%	37%	41%	13%	1%	-
31	CAMPBELL June	8%	31%	38%	19%	3%	-	-
32	AADHI Hansika	3%	24%	47%	22%	3%	-
33	CABALU Alaina	10%	40%	39%	11%	1%	-
34	MALVESTUTO Evelyn	28%	56%	15%	1%	-	-
35	KHAN Leena	18%	50%	28%	5%	-	-
36	MADSEN Lindsey	51%	40%	9%	1%	-	-
37	SHEBL Nadia	49%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
38	SOLOMIE Sabina	11%	42%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
39	SWOPE Farren	5%	28%	44%	22%	1%	-
40	SHELTON Olivia	50%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
41	KANG Marian	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-	-
42	BROSNAN Lily	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-	-
43	ADEAGBO Kareemat	43%	44%	13%	1%	-	-
44	KRONZER Sophia	54%	40%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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