Jersey Clash RYC/RJCC& Y8

Y-12 Women's Saber

Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 11:00 AM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KWON Ava	-	-	-	7%	36%	57%
2	CASTELO Soleil	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
3	LEOU Korina	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	NIU Jessica	-	-	2%	13%	46%	40%
5	WANG JiaQi	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	24%
6	FUNG Iris	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
7	REN Katherine	-	-	5%	23%	47%	25%
8	XU Elaine	4%	20%	36%	29%	11%	1%
9	SEO Kaitlyn	-	5%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%
10	HILD Anya	-	1%	12%	37%	40%	9%
11	NANDA Maanika	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
12	ZHANG Audrey	-	5%	23%	43%	25%	4%
13	LEE Grace	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	6%	1%
14	GOEL Lineysha	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
15	YERENKOVA Ameliia	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
16	HUANG Pierra	19%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-
17	ZHANG Ashley	-	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	14%
18	CHOI Charlotte	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
19	LIANG Claire	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
20	OSMINKINA-JONES Kai	-	3%	12%	29%	35%	18%	2%
21	ALMEDA Galina	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
22	CHI Alicia	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
23	WEI Madison	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
24	KURITNIK Sarah	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
25	LEE Kaitlin	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
26	GALLAGHER Isabella	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
27	GOLEN Grace	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
28	STOLCKE Saskia	5%	25%	39%	25%	5%	-
29	WANG Chloe	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
30	CHOWDHERY Myra	-	4%	17%	33%	32%	13%	1%
31	JUNG Elise	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
32	TA-ZHOU Sophia	-	5%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%
33	PATEL Maia	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
34	WANG Keira	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
35	KIM Eunjae	2%	15%	32%	32%	16%	4%	-
36	MAGITSKY Giadora	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
37	ZHAO Selena	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
38	BANDHU Saahiti	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
39	PARAISO Isabella	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
40	MALUKI Nia	6%	22%	35%	26%	10%	1%
41	QUIROS Lucia	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
42	CONVERSO-PARSONS Maia	12%	37%	37%	12%	1%	-
43	BLYAKHMAN HANNAH	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
44	CHEN Chloe	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
45	MOTOVA Masha	46%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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