The Bull City RJCC, RYC & Y8

Junior Men's Saber

Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:00 AM

LeRoy T. Walker Physical Education and Recreation Complex, NC Central University - Durham, NC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SU Landon	-	-	-	1%	9%	38%	53%
2	GREENBAUM Ian L.	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
3	MCGUIRE Christian	-	-	1%	11%	44%	43%
3	YE Eric	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
5	DECK Tyson	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	19%
6	GUAN Dennis	-	-	2%	14%	37%	37%	9%
7	TIAGI Daniel	-	3%	17%	40%	34%	6%
8	WANG Justin	-	-	2%	20%	51%	27%
9	TIAGI George	-	2%	12%	36%	40%	10%
10	SUN Ziyao	2%	21%	42%	28%	7%	-
11	KURILO Michael	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
12	CRAIN Bennett	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%	-
13	BREUER Daniel	1%	13%	35%	34%	14%	2%	-
14	WILKINSON James	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
15	WANG Max	-	7%	28%	42%	21%	2%
16	HALL Noah	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	2%
17	MEHTA Krish	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
18	LIN Felix	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	2%
19	SZULIM Lucjan	12%	38%	38%	11%	1%	-
20	SLEP Solomon	-	4%	20%	39%	28%	8%	1%
21	GUREVICH Benjamin	-	6%	27%	47%	18%	2%
22	ZHANG Yunsheng	1%	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
23	FRUTH Evan	5%	33%	41%	18%	3%	-
24	PARCELL Colby	17%	44%	32%	7%	-	-
25	STRUCKER Rocco	23%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-
26	SHIM Tristan	27%	44%	24%	4%	-	-
27	BIALIK Noah	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
28	LEE Thomas	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-	-
29	EYSTER Edison	22%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
30	YASAKCI Burhan	9%	38%	36%	14%	3%	-
31	ROORDA Easton	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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