Tiger Open 2023

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Hendrix Student Center - Clemson, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LOVERA Gaëtan	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
2	BRUCE Roman	-	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
3	SHEHORN Connor	-	-	8%	42%	47%	2%
3	YOON junhyeok	-	-	6%	31%	48%	14%
5	WANDEL Ethan S.	-	-	3%	15%	36%	34%	11%
6	CAMPBELL Justin	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
7	YANG Ethan J.	1%	7%	26%	38%	22%	6%	1%
8	CHOI Julie	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	3%
9	MILES Greyson	-	5%	30%	41%	21%	3%
10	SIGMON will M.	-	-	2%	15%	38%	34%	10%
11	LEBEDOVYCH Tristin	-	-	6%	32%	42%	18%	2%
12	VIVEROS Oscar A.	-	4%	32%	46%	18%	-
13	VIVEROS Evan	-	-	-	4%	20%	45%	31%
14	RILEY Owen	8%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
15	WOEHRMAN Madeline	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
16	BOCKSNICK John Robert	3%	23%	43%	27%	4%	-
17	HAYWOOD Madison	19%	48%	27%	5%	< 1%	-	-
18	HARKINS Asher	7%	30%	42%	20%	1%	-
19	MOSS Riley	2%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%	-
20	EVANGELISTI Gabriele	-	3%	16%	38%	34%	9%
21	MACKEVICIUS nykolas	8%	47%	34%	9%	1%	-
22	BLACKWOOD Asher	-	4%	30%	42%	21%	3%
23	BREZNY Peter	-	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
24	HUGHES Kayla	39%	47%	13%	1%	-	-
25	PLESS lydia	-	6%	38%	44%	11%	1%
26	BOTKIN Travis	41%	53%	6%	-	-	-
27	SCOTT Ford	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
28	BLACK Elias	53%	40%	7%	-	-	-	-
29	HAZEL Susan L.	1%	14%	39%	35%	10%	1%	-
30	LIU Hangda	< 1%	5%	20%	39%	30%	6%
31	MARTINA-BRITO Ella	14%	45%	32%	8%	1%	-
32	FLYNN Oliver	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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