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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CORTRIGHT Skipper	-	-	-	-	6%	32%	61%
2	DOELL Ethan	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	34%
3	LI Richard	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	23%
3	MAZAHERI Fletcher	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
5	RODRIGUEZ Tyler	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
6	ZHANG Jacob	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
7	LIU Josh	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	20%
8	TOOMRE Kai	-	-	6%	27%	44%	23%
9	YANG Charles	-	-	3%	20%	45%	32%
10	ZHOU Shawn	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	26%	4%
11	BIELER Mason	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
12	LI Edison M.	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
13	YU Eric	-	2%	13%	38%	36%	11%
14	YOU Alan	-	2%	14%	40%	35%	9%
15	LEE Jayden J.	-	-	3%	16%	36%	35%	10%
16	YANG Tate	1%	7%	26%	39%	22%	5%	-
17	LOZANO Veyron Jericho	-	1%	9%	33%	41%	15%
18	CHANG Eric Jonathan	-	1%	11%	32%	40%	16%
19	SU Desmond	2%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%
20	FUKUDA Brando	-	-	5%	23%	45%	27%
21	FOY Grant	2%	14%	35%	33%	13%	2%	-
22	KIM Gene	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%	2%
23	ZENG Albert	11%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-
24	GUO Joey	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
25	LEUNG Tsun Yin (TY)	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
26	WU Thomas	3%	25%	44%	22%	4%	-
27	ARCHIBALD Ian	9%	35%	38%	16%	3%	-
28	WANG Elijah (QiChen)	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
29	JACOB Ezra	8%	35%	40%	15%	2%	-
30	FOGELSON Hugh	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	7%
31	SU Preston	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
32	WEI Winston	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
33	CHEN Jason	3%	15%	32%	31%	15%	4%	-
34	SCHWITZER Eliot	5%	29%	40%	22%	5%	-
35	HUYNH Matthew	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
36	PONTOPPIDAN Erik	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
37	GANAPATHI Eshan	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
38	VALENCIA Anthony N.	9%	36%	39%	14%	2%	-
39	PAN Ethan	2%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
40	WARD Spencer	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
41	SUN Neo	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
42	PAYNE Lynas	10%	42%	37%	11%	1%	-
43	LIM Marcus	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
44	WANG Tiger	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	3%
45	CHIANG Aiden	30%	45%	20%	4%	-	-	-
46	SUN Evan	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
47	YANG Ethan	1%	5%	18%	33%	29%	12%	2%
47	WOOD Callum	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
49	BANUELOS Dario	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
50	YANG Steve	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
51	BATSUKH Chinguun	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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