SoCal Scholastic League Individual Epee/Saber #1

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 2:30 PM

Brentwood High School - Brentwood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	LEE Regina	-	-	-	-	2%	24%	51%	24%
2	KANE Chloe	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	5%
3	SHERMAN Olivia	2%	10%	25%	33%	22%	7%	1%
3	GALLUP Elise	-	2%	10%	27%	37%	21%	3%
5	CHEONG Chloe	-	6%	30%	42%	19%	3%	-
6	BLAETZ Isadora	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
7	SCANLAN Alina Nev	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
8	BROWN Leah	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
9	MAI Mailan	-	-	-	3%	14%	39%	44%
10	CHENG Yiwen	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	< 1%	-
11	OKUNYAN Anna	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	6%	-
12	RIVERA Natalia	-	2%	13%	31%	34%	16%	3%
13	FERRIE Karina	1%	14%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
14	FISH Hadley	-	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
15	LUCENA Yaretzi	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%	-
16	UEMURA Lyllia	36%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-	-
17	PAK Ella	25%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
18	UTTAMCHANDANI Aria	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%	-
19	NOHAILE Maeve	-	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
20	LEE Rainie	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	-
21	KLINE Emeline	-	1%	10%	32%	37%	16%	2%
22	MOELLER Clara	2%	16%	38%	32%	10%	1%	-
23	VAN BEEVER Luca	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	20%	3%
23	GRAY Olive	1%	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
25	PAEK Camille	2%	40%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-
26	STREAMS Grace	-	2%	12%	28%	33%	19%	6%	1%
27	DIETENHOFER Grace	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
27	KANAL Coco	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
27	LANZILLOTTA Gemma	3%	14%	29%	31%	18%	5%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.