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Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 4:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TWEMLOW Sacha	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
2	GUTH Joseph	-	-	-	-	8%	92%
3	SLUSHER Gideon	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
3	HOWLAND Jonas	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
5	MOLDOVEANU Roman	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
6	ZHOU Justin	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
7	OSTFIELD Matteo	1%	12%	35%	39%	12%	-
8	TURNER Jackson	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	14%
9	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
10	LINEBERRY Caden	4%	24%	40%	26%	6%	-
11	MURPHY Jonathan	-	3%	13%	31%	36%	16%
12	MARTIN Wesley	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
13	WENGER Liam	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%
14	BALES Gabriel	1%	12%	34%	37%	15%	1%
15	MA Nolan	8%	37%	38%	15%	2%	-
16	NAIDL Micah	1%	9%	31%	39%	19%	2%
17	YOUNG Jack	4%	23%	39%	27%	7%	-
18	MCCONKEY Tristan	-	1%	11%	39%	46%	2%
19	CALESHU Bauer	5%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%
20	WENGER Rowan	1%	7%	28%	40%	22%	2%
21	SYMMANK Callen	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
22	ZMUDA Aiden	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
23	DEPP Edward	-	3%	16%	38%	36%	7%
24	BLACK John	11%	38%	37%	13%	1%	-
25	MCMILLIAN Harrison	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
26	DIFRANK Tae	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-
27	XU Rambert	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
28	MA Gangjin	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
29	DAVIS Benjamin	12%	36%	37%	14%	1%	-
30	ZHANG Hanson	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
31	WOJTALEWICZ Aiden	3%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
32	FRASER Alistair	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-
33	FEEHAN Conor	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
34	NG Gavin	32%	42%	21%	4%	-	-
35	HALLETTMANES Ezra	40%	42%	16%	2%	-	-
36	ROMENESKO Bryce	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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