Daugherty Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Moolah Shrine Center - St. Louis, MO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	NUNNINK Phillip W.	-	-	-	1%	21%	78%
2	BOYKO Miles	-	-	6%	31%	54%	9%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
3	WILKINS Mateo	-	-	1%	14%	50%	35%
5	ZHAO Bowen	-	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
6	SLUSHER Gideon	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
7	JI Aidan Y.	-	-	-	1%	17%	81%
8	CHOE Jayden K.	-	-	1%	11%	47%	41%
9	CROOM Tucker	-	3%	24%	44%	24%	4%
10	BIESIADA Jan	-	3%	19%	44%	32%	2%
11	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
12	HOWLAND Jonas	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
13	LOCKWOOD Jacob	-	6%	30%	44%	20%	1%
14	PHONPRASANSACK Grayson	3%	20%	41%	31%	6%	-
15	LIU Yinhong	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
16	NAIDL Josiah	1%	12%	37%	40%	10%	-
17	SILVA Alexander Ryan	1%	9%	36%	40%	14%	1%
18	BERSCHEID Arthur	4%	25%	44%	24%	3%	-
19	WENGER Liam	11%	57%	27%	4%	-	-
20	OSTFIELD Matteo	38%	43%	17%	2%	-	-
21	WEISS Quintin	14%	43%	34%	9%	1%	-
22	LAKAS Darius	32%	48%	18%	2%	-	-
22	ZMUDA Aiden	10%	37%	38%	14%	1%	-
22	MODADUGU Aryan	5%	27%	42%	23%	3%	-
25	HICKEY Connor	1%	14%	34%	34%	15%	2%
26	RYAN Nash	43%	42%	13%	1%	-	-
27	KOKKER Thomas	-	10%	40%	37%	11%	1%
28	DAVIS Benjamin	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-
29	MA Gangjin	38%	48%	13%	1%	-	-
30	WOJTALEWICZ Aiden	60%	33%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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