Durkan American Dream RYC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Durkan Fencing Academy - Garfield, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SIROTA Francis	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
2	CAI Ilana	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
3	MCFARLANE Asha	-	1%	5%	25%	47%	23%
3	WANG Joanna	-	-	-	-	1%	12%	88%
5	TSIMIKLIS Aphrodite	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
6	ORRINGER Lottie	-	-	1%	9%	38%	53%
7	LI Savannah	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
8	BO Iris	-	1%	7%	23%	40%	28%	2%
9	ROBERTS Anastasia	-	1%	11%	34%	42%	11%
10	KENNEDY Izadora	-	4%	22%	41%	29%	4%
11	ZHANG Caroline	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
12	BALIN Sophia	2%	15%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
13	FEDER Acadia	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%	1%
14	BAULIN Zoya	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
15	KRAHE Annika	-	-	2%	16%	45%	37%
16	GOODMAN Carden	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
17	XU Charlene	1%	7%	27%	41%	22%	2%
18	CHOI Cara	7%	34%	40%	17%	3%	-
19	SHUTZER Lily	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	2%
20	PAEK Mila	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
21	CAO Amelie	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
22	RAFFAELE Nancy	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	2%
23	YOUM Amelia	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
24	KOESTERS Florentine	17%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-
25	HUDSON Sophie	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
26	KOESTERS Cecilie	5%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-
27	LEO Jenna	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%	-
27	ZHENG Annalyn	21%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-
29	JAZWINSKI Ivy	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	2%
30	HUSSAIN Maya	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
31	WU Charlotte	8%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
32	ENRIQUEZ Bianca Perla	7%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-
33	BALMER Zoe	39%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
34	REILLY Carys	2%	13%	31%	34%	18%	3%	-
35	LIAW Audrey	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-
36	DONG Katelyn	47%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
37	LIANG Jasmine	2%	15%	39%	33%	10%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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