The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

53rd Annual Green Gator

Div II Mixed Foil

Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 1:30 PM

Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DERBAUM Brandon	-	-	-	1%	15%	60%	24%
2	CEPERO Rosabel	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
3	HARRIS Samuel	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
3	SLOWINSKI Maia	-	2%	17%	45%	37%
5	AHN Jaehyun	-	1%	19%	56%	24%
6	JOHNSON Owen	-	-	-	5%	25%	53%	17%
7	FERGUSON Jamal	-	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	4%
8	JIANG Yangying(Amanda)	-	-	3%	17%	47%	33%
9	BUSTAMANTE Marshall	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
9	LEWIS Jared	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
11	GATZA Logan	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
13	YIM Alex	4%	31%	43%	20%	2%
14	TANGUILIG Michael	5%	26%	44%	22%	3%	< 1%
16	LIAO Anthony	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
18	SPEARS Scott	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
19	BECK Kelsey	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
20	SELGAS Nicholas	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	8%
21	ROSSEN Michael	1%	7%	27%	39%	21%	4%	-
22	DONDERIS A.J.	3%	19%	37%	31%	9%
23	CINTRON Erika	57%	36%	7%	-	-
24	VIVEROS Evan	4%	24%	43%	24%	4%	-
25	JOHNSON Seth	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
26	VIVEROS Oscar	10%	46%	35%	7%	-
27	JONES Chase	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
28	RIVERA Ivan	1%	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
29	FOOTE Regan	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
30	ALLEN Braeden	-	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
31	KIM Chaemin	9%	33%	39%	17%	2%
32	GARCIA Jorge	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
33	RIVERA Amanda	4%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%
35	TAYLOR Shayla	29%	44%	22%	4%	-
36	LEE Joanne	2%	25%	50%	20%	2%
37	MURSHID M.M	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
38	WELLS John	8%	27%	37%	22%	6%	-
39	O'CONNOR Kristian	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
40	VIVEROS Antonio	1%	7%	26%	41%	23%	2%	-
42	FLECHA Marc	24%	45%	26%	6%	-
44	CHOY Spencer	2%	15%	33%	34%	14%	1%
45	FONTANA Julianne	-	8%	34%	41%	16%	1%	-
46	JOHNSON Nicholas	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
47	KANDAGADLA Rishi	3%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%
48	MURCH Leo	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	-
49	RAMDEEN Devindra	4%	28%	41%	21%	5%	-	-
50	VOROBJOV Alex	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%	-
51	MAUL Judy	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%	-
52	BATRA Savita	7%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
53	DE LA PAZ Melissa	21%	40%	28%	10%	2%	-
54	DAY Noelle	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
58	NELSON Anna	5%	27%	44%	21%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.