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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LUKER Sophia	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	75%
2	JIANG Evelyn	-	-	3%	14%	31%	36%	16%
3	SEAL Cameron I.	-	-	6%	22%	37%	28%	8%
3	ZHU Avril	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
5	KINKADE Ellie	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
6	ZHAI AMY	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	5%
7	XU Kaylyn	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
8	WANG Jiayi	-	1%	9%	28%	36%	20%	4%
9	REAVIS Isabel	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
10	LUKER Hannah	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
11	ZHANG Ashley	-	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%	1%
12	MOON Claire	2%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
13	SEBASTIAN Ava	-	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%	-
14	CAI Veronica	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
15	CHOI Charlotte	-	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
16	KIRBY Skye	16%	52%	27%	5%	-	-	-
17	ZHAN Sophie	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
18	KU Alathea-Joy	-	5%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
19	LIN Annika	-	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
20	CHEN Elaine	-	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
20	KIM Karen	-	4%	24%	43%	25%	4%	-
22	BROWN Aria	2%	13%	30%	32%	18%	5%	-
23	NGUYEN Madeleine	-	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
24	JOHNSON Heaven	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
25	YU Stella	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
26	LIU Hannah	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%
27	SONG RINKYEONG	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	16%
28	WANG JiaQi	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
29	ZHOU Ziling	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
30	YE Madeleine	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
31	LONG Jessie	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
32	YUEN Nicole	-	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
33	ASPIRAS Avery	10%	39%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
34	KITSON Sasha	2%	12%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
35	YUN Yeju	-	1%	7%	29%	41%	20%	2%
36	KIM Satie	2%	11%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
37	BANGALORE Shriya	16%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
38	CHONG chaei	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
39	YOO Audrey	4%	35%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
40	QIU Sophie	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
41	JUDE Simona	26%	48%	21%	4%	-	-	-
42	RIGBY Ellie	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
43	TERP Lucy	7%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%
44	CHERUKURI Tanvi	41%	45%	12%	1%	-	-	-
45	EDELBROCK Kate	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
46	CASTILLO Abigail	3%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
47	GILLENTINE Madelyn	58%	35%	6%	1%	-	-	-
47	BELIVEAU Agnes	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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