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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WILKINS Mateo	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
2	SINHA Verdhaan	-	-	-	1%	21%	77%
3	OAKLAND Brennan	-	-	-	-	10%	89%
3	FLANAGAN James P	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
5	OLSON Emerson	-	-	-	4%	36%	61%
6	CHEZ Nolan	-	-	1%	9%	42%	48%
7	HOWLAND Jonas	-	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	2%
8	BERSCHEID Arthur	-	-	1%	14%	60%	25%
9	NAIDL Josiah	-	1%	11%	39%	45%	3%
10	MCKINLEY Luke	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
11	ROLDAN-LEVCHENKO Nikita	-	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
12	CROOM Tucker	-	-	2%	18%	54%	26%
13	LOCKWOOD Jacob	-	6%	30%	46%	17%	2%
14	WAKEHAM Paul	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
15	WEISS Quintin	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	8%	1%
16	WAKEHAM Timothy	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
17	TAN Xinlai	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
18	BULLARD Sydney	7%	32%	46%	15%	1%	-
19	CLIPPARD Erik	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
20	WOJTALEWICZ Aiden	5%	39%	42%	12%	1%	-
21	TOEWS Jackson	-	3%	23%	59%	14%	1%
22	IBARRA Alejandro	4%	23%	38%	26%	9%	1%	-
23	PHONPRASANSACK Grayson	-	2%	11%	28%	37%	20%	2%
24	KANG Marian	-	11%	44%	36%	9%	-
25	AHNEMANN Leif	1%	16%	45%	32%	7%	-
26	MADSEN Lindsey	12%	54%	30%	4%	-	-
27	KRONZER Sophia	48%	44%	7%	-	-	-
28	OLSON Ingrid	2%	22%	49%	24%	3%	-
28	CAPERS Hunter	1%	10%	35%	41%	13%	1%
30	RUBY Asher	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
31	TRAN Allex	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
32	FADLIA Murad	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
33	ZINSER James	30%	52%	17%	1%	-	-
34	JERNEY Agustina	2%	46%	46%	6%	-	-
35	BOMGARDNER Ben	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-
36	NEAS Derek	1%	9%	34%	43%	13%	-
37	O'KANE Tiernan	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
38	GORDON Jack	-	6%	30%	49%	14%	-
39	MOHAMED Siham	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
40	FEEHAN Conor	16%	44%	34%	6%	-	-
41	HOKANSON Braddock	29%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
42	CRUZ Cole	32%	45%	20%	3%	-	-
43	YANNITELLI Sammy	11%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
44	ANDERSON Norse	22%	44%	28%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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