2023 Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 2:30 PM

Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Renee	-	-	-	-	1%	14%	85%
2	LAI Sophia	-	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
3	DAVIS Logan	-	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
3	HAFEZ Tahiyah	-	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	18%
5	BROWN Lola	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
6	TAO Ann	-	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	1%
7	LI Joy	1%	13%	40%	36%	9%
8	ZHANG Ivy	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
9	DENG Melissa	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
10	CHERNYKH Elina	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
11	LI Alice	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	3%
12	SEAL Cameron I.	1%	8%	34%	43%	15%
13	LIU Samantha	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	10%	1%
14	KIM Erin	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
15	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%	-
16	WANG DINA C.	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	-
17	AADHI Hansika	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%
18	KIM Sydney	-	2%	10%	29%	38%	20%	1%
19	ZHANG Gwenyth	1%	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	-
20	AL-BATTAINEH Eva	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
21	GE Lena Lan	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
22	DESAI Esha	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
23	AL-BATTAINEH Hana	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
24	ALKADI Mai	1%	8%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
25	DESERANNO Seren	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
26	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
27	LEE Jeemin	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	8%	-
28	ALVAREZ Isabella	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
29	CASHMAN Hailey	6%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%
30	LIN Allison	18%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
31	CHANG Nola	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
32	HUSSIAN Annabelle	20%	49%	25%	5%	-
33	CHANG Olia	8%	29%	36%	21%	5%	1%	-
34	CHANG Janelle	46%	42%	11%	1%	-
35	TAN Shouyin	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
36	PIQUETTE Annika	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
37	MAHABALESHWARKAR Aanika	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	3%	-
38	SHAKIR Zainab	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
38	GRIMM Parker	39%	40%	17%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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