Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, December 30, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KARAVAS Nicholas	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	14%
2	KUMAR Avinash	-	1%	5%	25%	48%	22%
3	GRIGORYAN Sevak	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
3	KOREN George	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
5	TAYCHER Aaron	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
6	HOWARTH Hayes	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	3%
7	EARLEY Jack	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
8	RISMAN Edward	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
9	PARK Layne	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%
10	ZALETAEV Jacob	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
11	CARR Silas	-	-	5%	27%	45%	23%
12	GILBERT Ari	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%	1%
13	CHAVAN Aditya	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
14	SOCHNIKOV Jacob	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
15	GAO Francis	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
16	PARK Sean	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	13%
17	KOREN David	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
18	DAVIDSON Graham	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
19	CHAN Brady	-	5%	17%	32%	30%	14%	2%
20	WEI Hunter	1%	16%	38%	33%	11%	1%
21	LONGCORE Daniel	15%	42%	33%	9%	1%	-
22	DANIELS William	6%	28%	42%	22%	3%	-
23	BURENKOV Matthew	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
24	HOFFMAN Graham	-	4%	18%	34%	32%	11%
25	HORJUS Daniel	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
26	TENNEY Edward	65%	29%	5%	-	-	-
27	WANG William	13%	32%	33%	17%	5%	1%	-
28	BLACK Bauer	< 1%	9%	31%	38%	19%	2%
29	MCCOY Elias	1%	12%	53%	28%	5%	-
29	SEARS Max	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
31	HALACSY Edomer	1%	16%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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