January NAC

Vet-60 Men's Saber

Saturday, January 6, 2024 at 4:00 PM

San Jose McEnery Convention Center - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LUNDBORG Mark R.	-	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
2	RUNYAN Joshua	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	MATT Chris	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
3	HERRERA Richard K.	-	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%
5	MILNE Will J.	-	-	1%	8%	33%	49%	10%
6	BUKOWSKI Todd	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	16%
7	DASHNAW Stephen	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
8	LEAR Donald W.	-	1%	7%	31%	44%	16%	1%
9	ZINNI Gene	8%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-
10	SRERE Mark A.	-	2%	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%
11	GUEBLE Jeffrey R.	-	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
12	LIN Feng	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%	-
13	VIDOVSZKY Tamas J.	-	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
14	SU Ji	13%	58%	25%	3%	-	-	-
15	KRASNICH Mike	-	5%	22%	41%	27%	5%
16	ANTHONY Jr Donald K.	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
17	HECK Steven D.	-	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
18	DAHL Chris	19%	51%	25%	5%	-	-	-
19	CRETEN joachim	2%	17%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-
20	MIGHELL Jason	-	11%	42%	35%	11%	1%	-
21	HICHA Paul R.	-	3%	20%	45%	28%	5%	-
22	TREANOR Donald K.	19%	55%	23%	3%	-	-	-
23	CHAMBERS Thomas J.	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
24	BLAIR III Ray H.	23%	43%	27%	6%	1%	-
25	RICHARDS Dick	24%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
26	BRUCE II Ommer E.	74%	25%	2%	-	-	-	-
27	OLSON Mark R.	50%	39%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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