Treasure Chest RYC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 2:00 PM

Treasure Island YMCA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	XU Serena	-	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
2	HANKINS Morgan	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
3	ZHAO Ellie	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	18%	4%
3	DYMAR Anna	-	-	3%	13%	31%	36%	17%
5	GIERAT-KATZ Izabella	-	2%	11%	26%	33%	21%	6%	-
6	ARULKUMAR Lashia	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	9%
7	MIYOSHI Kylie	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
8	ZHAO Emma	-	-	3%	12%	28%	35%	20%	3%
9	WANG Nicole	-	2%	12%	28%	33%	20%	5%
10	DENEALE Lucia	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
11	CHI Zoe	-	-	2%	9%	27%	40%	23%
12	VOORHIES Vivienne	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
13	CHEN Julia Z.	-	4%	15%	30%	31%	16%	4%	-
14	BUDMAN Ava	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
15	CHO Jacey	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
16	REN Ivanka	8%	27%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-	-
17	SINGLETARY Iona	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
18	RASHID Summer	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
19	SUNG Audrey	-	3%	13%	29%	34%	18%	3%
20	YANG Emma	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
21	AGARWAL Keya	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
22	DEARBORN Josie	-	< 1%	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
23	XIE ANDREA	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
24	BATRA Meera	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
25	FENG Scarlett	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%	-
26	ZU Jacqueline	15%	35%	32%	15%	4%	-	-	-
27	CHANG Allison	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	6%	1%	-
28	KAYMAN June	-	4%	15%	29%	30%	17%	5%	-
29	YU Jiaming	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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