2024 South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Junior Women's Saber

Monday, January 15, 2024 at 3:30 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Main Ballroom - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TONG Jessie	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	20%
2	RAMIREZ Mirka A.	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
3	ARNOLD Hali	-	-	-	4%	24%	50%	21%
3	CHAN Jolene	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
5	FANG Victoria W.	-	-	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
6	FENG Alicia G.	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	12%	1%
7	WILSON Eva	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	16%	3%
8	GOSAVI Aabolee	-	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
9	LEE Lauren	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
10	WANG Zidan	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
11	CHEN Colette	-	3%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%
12	TEYSSIER Katherine	-	2%	36%	47%	15%
13	GOMES Diana C.	-	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	9%
14	ZHAI AMY	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
15	TUNG Renee	-	1%	28%	49%	21%
16	LI YING CHU	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
17	MUNGUIA Mila	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
18	BROCK Sydney	-	-	15%	47%	38%
19	GOLOVITSER Maya	-	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
20	LIN Annika	6%	23%	34%	25%	9%	2%	-
21	KIM Satie	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	4%	-
23	WANG Peijia	-	3%	18%	41%	30%	7%	-
24	BORDAS HILL Georgiana	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%
25	HAN Emma	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
26	SNOAD Indy	4%	38%	41%	15%	2%	-	-
27	WANG Jiayi	4%	19%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
28	JOHNSON Heaven	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
29	HUSS Miriam	8%	34%	37%	17%	4%	-	-
30	CHEN Elaine	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
31	LIU Hannah	3%	26%	40%	24%	7%	1%	-
32	CAI Veronica	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
33	RIVERA Brenda	-	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
34	KIRBY Skye	28%	65%	7%	-	-
35	NING Lynn	2%	30%	40%	22%	6%	1%	-
36	OLKO Sophie	2%	24%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
37	SUN Angela	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
38	PANCHAL Arya	68%	32%	1%	-	-
39	HENRY Erin	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-
40	SOUTTER Sandra	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	WALLIS Allie	85%	14%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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