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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	XIAO Edward	-	-	1%	9%	44%	47%
2	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	17%
3	CANLAS Nathan	-	-	-	5%	39%	56%
3	YI William	1%	20%	57%	20%	2%
5	MEDVIDOVIC Pavle	2%	17%	38%	34%	9%
6	OH Samuel H.	-	-	4%	25%	48%	23%
7	CHEN Matthew	1%	14%	51%	29%	5%	-
8	KUZMAK Michael J.	-	12%	39%	38%	11%
9	COOK Ryan	2%	26%	44%	24%	4%
10	PINCHENG Yao	-	2%	20%	60%	17%	1%
11	SCHIENEMAN Valentine	1%	7%	27%	42%	22%
12	ZHANG Jacob	-	3%	21%	46%	30%
13	LEE Allison	11%	34%	37%	17%	3%
14	JAYASEKARA Hiran H.	-	1%	13%	51%	35%
15	BRISLAWN Reilly R.	-	-	4%	26%	56%	14%
16	CHOI Kailyn	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
17	WELBORN Calissa	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
18	CHEN Cynthia	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
19	OH Justin	3%	21%	42%	27%	6%	-
20	LIN Lydia J.	2%	20%	38%	29%	10%	1%
20	LEE Ka Ying Susanna	3%	23%	45%	25%	4%	-
22	CHEN Brian	1%	13%	39%	37%	9%
23	CSIPAN Reka	1%	14%	36%	36%	13%
24	WALBERT Charlotte B.	7%	28%	40%	22%	3%
25	AU Marcus J.	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
26	TSOI Spencer	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
27	LI Serena	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
28	WOHLNER Tyler K.	-	4%	19%	41%	33%	3%
29	YORK Lucas	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%
30	CHOI Ethan	4%	38%	44%	14%	1%
31	CHEUNG Kaitlin	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
32	CLAWSON James	25%	55%	18%	2%	-	-
33	TRITASAVIT Jordan	5%	25%	39%	25%	5%
34	PONCE Ricardo	6%	27%	39%	23%	4%
35	LINK Matthew	2%	19%	42%	31%	6%
36	TRUJILLO Jonah	12%	44%	41%	2%	-	-
37	BEAVER Nathaniel	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%	-
38	TURNER Finian	44%	50%	6%	-	-
39	CREASON Nicholas	3%	22%	42%	28%	5%	-
40	BANDLER Zach	2%	22%	50%	23%	3%	-
41	WEN James	77%	21%	2%	-	-
42	CHO Alana	10%	34%	39%	15%	2%
43	KUK Cleopatra	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
44	THOM Jacqueline	6%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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