SoCal Scholastic Fencing League Individual Epee/Saber #2

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:30 AM

Brentwood High School - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SCANLAN Claire	-	4%	30%	51%	15%
2	LAY Apollonia	-	-	6%	35%	59%
3	HASIM Eurietta	-	2%	15%	44%	39%
3	XIONG Xiaotu	2%	28%	47%	20%	3%
5	DRYSDALE Lita	-	1%	14%	56%	28%
6	BROWN Riley	-	1%	11%	40%	47%
7	PEI Audrey	-	-	5%	24%	45%	25%
8	GEYER Victoria M.	-	-	6%	35%	59%
9	STOMMEL-DIAZ Charly	-	2%	13%	36%	39%	10%
10	POON Desiree	-	6%	32%	48%	13%
11	MOORADIAN Anya	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
12	MOHEBI Neeka	-	7%	30%	45%	18%
13	DANKO Siena	2%	23%	48%	23%	3%
14	IACCINO Lauren	1%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
15	UNGUREAN Zara	-	1%	7%	36%	56%
16	GONG Zixi	-	9%	42%	40%	9%
17	SHETTY Nandita	5%	33%	42%	18%	2%
18	TSUI Zoe	1%	14%	46%	34%	5%
19	TEDFORD Bridget	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
20	SCHAFFER Sophia	4%	25%	45%	22%	3%
21	GONSALVES Scarlett	4%	33%	47%	15%	1%
22	AMIR Olivia	33%	46%	19%	2%	-
23	NETANEL Aria	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
24	KIM Kaylee	2%	19%	48%	27%	4%
25	TAMIR Annika	5%	34%	40%	18%	3%	-
26	RAMIREZ Leah	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
27	MOORE Christiahn	1%	12%	36%	36%	13%	1%
28	GORDON Chloe	-	1%	5%	24%	44%	26%
29	SHIN Lana	6%	33%	42%	17%	2%
30	DASHEVSKY Jordan	74%	23%	2%	-	-
31	KIM Iris	3%	29%	57%	11%	-
32	CASH Emily	2%	17%	50%	28%	4%
33	SUAREZ Grace	9%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-
34	KIM Audrey	13%	46%	33%	8%	-
35	VILLALTA Olivia	36%	48%	15%	1%	-
36	ZHOU Ivy	62%	32%	6%	-	-
37	BUCASAS Lia	36%	50%	13%	1%	-
38	PINSON Charlee	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
39	TEGTMEYER Sophia	27%	49%	22%	3%	-
40	HICBAN Janoah Keisha Marin	57%	35%	7%	1%	-
41	MILLINER Cassidy	53%	38%	8%	1%	-
42	FOUSE LAWRENCE Asha	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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