The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Battle At The Beach 2 RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, February 10, 2024 at 8:00 AM

The Ocean Center Convention Center - Daytona Beach, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MOORE Alexander	100%	100%	100%	100%	96%	78%	36%
2	YAO Ryan	100%	100%	98%	86%	55%	17%
3	CARCELLER Jeremias	100%	100%	99%	91%	68%	33%	7%
3	YAO Aiden	100%	100%	99%	92%	65%	26%	2%
5	KIM Aiden	100%	100%	99%	90%	65%	29%	6%
6	ABAD-HERRERO Kieran	100%	100%	100%	97%	84%	49%	12%
7	SHIM Jae	100%	100%	96%	80%	45%	11%
8	SHIM Jaeyoo	100%	95%	71%	35%	9%	1%
9	BOHLER-PARK Henry	100%	100%	97%	83%	50%	17%	2%
10	ELLIS, IV Floyd	100%	98%	85%	53%	19%	3%
11	PATEL Tej	100%	94%	67%	30%	7%	1%	-
12	ORNDORF IV Thomas P.	100%	84%	48%	17%	3%	-	-
13	NAZARIO Isael	100%	100%	97%	80%	42%	11%	1%
14	HUANG Jayden	100%	68%	27%	6%	1%	-
15	PATEL Yash	100%	81%	40%	11%	2%	-	-
16	BEZAS Constantine	100%	98%	82%	47%	13%	1%
17	APONTE Diego	100%	100%	98%	86%	57%	23%	4%
18	BEN-YOSEPH Rafael	100%	94%	64%	25%	5%	-	-
19	AVELAR Lucas	100%	99%	89%	58%	24%	5%	-
20	KIM Kaiden	100%	60%	18%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.