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Battle At The Beach 2 RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, February 10, 2024 at 3:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PAN Ethan	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
2	SHIN Noah	-	-	2%	9%	28%	40%	20%
3	KOE Declan	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
3	LIM EUNSEONG	-	-	-	2%	16%	45%	36%
5	TSENG Lucas	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
6	BRITTNELL Nicolas	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	22%
7	ZENG Albert	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
8	PERSAUD Adi	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
9	REBNER Parker	5%	31%	40%	20%	4%	< 1%	-
10	DANTON Ryan	-	3%	14%	34%	35%	13%
11	JORGE Elijah	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
12	HOARE Gabriel	-	7%	28%	42%	20%	3%	-
13	MINIOTIS Nicholas	12%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
14	KOVACH Graham	10%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
15	DAFFRON Griffin	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	3%
16	BJORN Eric	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	5%
17	MARULLO Giuseppe	-	-	3%	16%	37%	36%	9%
18	LEWIS Zachary	-	-	-	3%	26%	48%	23%
19	HU Anthony	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
20	APONTE Diego	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
21	MARCUS Vincent	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	16%	2%
22	CHOE Austin	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
23	OMOHUNDRO Lane	2%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%	-
24	CREWS Aiden	-	2%	10%	29%	38%	18%	3%
25	ROBERTSON Liam	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
26	HOFFMAN Zane	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
27	RUDDEN Trevor	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
28	REYNOLDS CHANG Luke	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-
29	PELEGRINO Bruno	1%	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	-
30	AZAR Julien	3%	22%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-
31	NGUYEN Minh Vuong	32%	43%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
32	ROSANDER Robert	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
33	LEEKER Charles	23%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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