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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	MITTAL Sanil	-	-	5%	32%	62%
2	BROOKS Zachary B.	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	KAROLAK Dale W.	-	2%	23%	48%	28%
3	HAW Keith F.	-	2%	13%	40%	46%
5	ULMAN Nathan	6%	28%	42%	22%	2%
6	THOMAS Samuel	-	-	3%	26%	71%
7	JANYSKA Allen	4%	26%	47%	21%	2%
8	KRUGOV Yuriy	1%	17%	47%	31%	3%
9	ARNEMANN Jonas	-	2%	23%	59%	16%
10	BLAKE Carson	11%	38%	38%	12%	1%
11	KERSTEN Ryan	3%	19%	37%	31%	9%
12	DELLOT Mason	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
13	PILON Isabella	11%	43%	43%	3%	-
14	BAKKE Alexander	7%	29%	40%	21%	3%
15	WANG Peter	10%	33%	38%	17%	2%
16	WIDMANN Ceili	8%	38%	40%	13%	1%
17	SPURGEON William	14%	41%	34%	10%	1%
18	STOCK Olivia	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%
19	HERSCOVICI Aaron	5%	27%	42%	23%	2%
20	FOMENKOVA Liudmila	26%	44%	25%	5%	-
21	LI Rebecca	31%	47%	19%	3%	-
22	DARMAWAN Tiffany	41%	43%	14%	2%	-
23	HOLDORF LE GOFF Bianca	43%	43%	13%	1%	-
24	PULLMAN Jacob	3%	19%	37%	31%	9%
24	LIU Sandra	10%	47%	34%	8%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.