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2024 MN High School Championships (Individual Event)

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 3:00 PM

SPA Randolph Campus - Saint Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	ISHANOVA Sofia	1%	18%	81%
2	KANG Marian	1%	16%	83%
3	LI Grace	6%	40%	53%
4	SHELTON Olivia	6%	56%	39%
5	BULLARD Sydney	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
6	JERNEY Agustina	21%	55%	23%
7	OLSON Ingrid	1%	6%	26%	44%	23%
9	SHUSTA Lily	32%	48%	19%	2%
10	KRONZER Sophia	65%	35%
12	WYATT Stella	35%	65%
13	MADSEN Lindsey	14%	39%	36%	11%
16	CRIEGO Natalie	2%	27%	48%	23%
20	LETOURNEAUT Lily	53%	43%	3%
21	RIES Celina	55%	39%	6%
22	WOERTER Therese	7%	31%	43%	19%
23	TYMCHUCK Athena	21%	45%	28%	6%	-
26	ERSTAD Chelsea	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%
28	GÄG Tehya	28%	66%	6%
29	SOROUR Amira	37%	56%	7%
30	TELCI Arya	10%	36%	38%	14%	2%
32	SKJEI Josephine	76%	23%	2%
35	YANNITELLI Samantha	63%	34%	3%
36	WUITSCHICK Mikayla	7%	45%	48%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.