Little Pharaoh - RYC / RCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 4:00 PM

Peoria Academy School - Peoria, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BUEHLER Felix	-	-	-	3%	25%	73%
2	TAN Charlie	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
3	HUANG Kenneth	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
3	FANG Haoyu	-	-	3%	27%	61%	8%
5	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
6	MCMILLIAN Harrison	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
7	ZHOU Justin	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
8	SYMMANK Callen	2%	14%	33%	34%	16%	3%
9	ZHENG Marcus	-	-	-	7%	38%	54%
10	JIAO Daniel	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	2%
11	LI Andy	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
12	KAGAN Noah	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	13%
13	ZHENG Lerui	2%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%
14	CHASE Crosby	2%	18%	44%	30%	6%	-
15	XU Rambert	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
16	WENGER Rowan	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
17	DIFRANK Avery	-	4%	26%	50%	19%	2%
18	DIFRANK Tae	1%	13%	40%	35%	10%	1%
19	MORALES Tycho	1%	9%	29%	39%	21%	3%
20	HALLETTMANES Ezra	18%	53%	25%	4%	-	-
21	HAN JINHA	5%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
22	CRONK Trevor	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%	1%
23	NG Gavin	29%	49%	20%	2%	-	-
24	MCGRATH Milo	-	4%	21%	42%	29%	4%
25	KOTCH Brodie	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
26	THEKKEL Jonathan	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
27	GREULICH Nikolas	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
28	ZHANG Hanson	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
29	HICKEY Dylan	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
30	SHAH Aadi	15%	41%	34%	10%	1%	-
31	KOSCIK-AQUINO Nicholas	5%	28%	48%	18%	2%	-
32	CHAN William	41%	40%	15%	3%	-	-
33	CHEN Evan	1%	8%	30%	40%	20%	2%
34	TAGORE Ayansh	33%	47%	18%	2%	-	-
35	LIM-SEIWERT Cassian	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
36	ALTENHOF Nathaniel	47%	40%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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