2nd Annual Bruce Capin Memorial Brawl

Div II Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 12:30 PM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MOE Annan	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
2	SAADO Cesar	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	WU Anthony	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
3	NGUYEN William	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
5	KANDAGADLA Rishi	-	1%	10%	35%	42%	12%
6	CHOWDHURY Arman	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	46%
7	GADIYARAM Madhav	-	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
8	OROZCO Francis	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
9	URIBE LEON Sebastian	5%	24%	38%	25%	6%	< 1%
10	RODRIGUEZ Mateo	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	23%	3%
11	LIAO Anthony	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	19%
12	DESANTO Juniper	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
13	REDONDO Tomas	-	1%	7%	23%	38%	27%	4%
14	GADIYARAM Sushama	1%	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
15	ESTEBAN Ruperto	5%	36%	40%	16%	3%	-
16	KIMURA Ryo	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%	1%
17	SPICER Gavin	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	3%
18	TOSCANO Sebastian	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
19	CARRERO Quentin	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%	1%
20	OCCIANO Jade	5%	33%	42%	17%	2%	-
21	RIETZ Cairan	-	6%	26%	43%	22%	3%
22	WONG Grace	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%
23	RANDAZZO Nurin	13%	35%	35%	15%	2%	-
24	VASSALLO Angela	2%	19%	48%	25%	5%	-	-
25	COMPTON John	-	1%	10%	27%	37%	21%	4%
26	ARIANAS Elias	1%	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	-
27	TORRES Alana	-	4%	26%	50%	19%	2%	-
28	HUANG Brian	4%	25%	42%	24%	4%	-
29	PENSYL Ethan	11%	42%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
30	LIU Joanna	15%	52%	27%	5%	-	-	-
31	PROVOST Sebastian	3%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
32	BARRETT Matthew	1%	13%	35%	37%	12%	1%
33	SEGURA Matthew	1%	8%	30%	41%	18%	1%
34	SOLOMON Alexander	7%	35%	39%	16%	3%	-
35	CHEN Tyler	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
36	LEARY Diego	19%	37%	29%	12%	2%	-	-
37	JAVATE Ryan	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
38	CHEN Mikayla	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.