The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
Maria Panyi (1), Andrey Geva (2), Igor Chirashnya (3), and Sue Moheb (4).

Take Action

14th Annual Yellow Jacket Open

Div III Mixed Saber

Saturday, March 2, 2024 at 4:30 PM

Georgia Tech Campus Recreation Center: Atlanta, GA - Atlanta, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CERDA Giovanni	-	-	2%	9%	27%	40%	22%
2	LISSO Ria A.	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
3	HUSSAIN Mustafa	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
3	SILVA Daniel	-	-	-	2%	21%	76%
5	XIE Joshua	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	21%
6	ODBADRAKH Batu	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
7	XIAO Yao	-	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
8	JAYASANKAR Hari	-	-	1%	12%	40%	46%
9	LIM Kai	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
10	RAKAJ Jozef	-	1%	11%	37%	43%	8%
11	JAYARAM Archita	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
12	BURGESS Beckham	-	6%	28%	43%	21%	2%
13	RODRIGUEZ Jason	2%	19%	46%	26%	5%	-
14	HARKONEN Eemil	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%	-
15	LIU Dylan Y.	-	6%	28%	45%	19%	2%
16	GONZALEZ Jerry	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	3%
17	TRUBEY Elise	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%
18	SULLIVAN Axyl	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%	-
18	STEWART Brian	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
20	LIU Kyle	1%	8%	34%	40%	16%	2%
21	MEIER Nicholas M.	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	14%
21	HUGHES Eric	4%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
23	YUAN Erin	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	5%
24	LEE Andrew	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
25	DEMAREE Adam	-	7%	27%	39%	23%	4%
26	NGUYEN Andy	11%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-
27	BALAJI Tejas	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
28	ZONNENBERG William	5%	27%	43%	21%	3%	-
29	PIRRO Anton	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	2%
30	MUSSELMAN Matthew	2%	17%	40%	32%	9%	-
31	WILCOX Hayden	29%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
32	CALLAHAN Arrow	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
33	VIDRINE Odile	38%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
34	LEE Daniel	3%	21%	39%	29%	7%	-
35	GURKIN Justin	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-
36	NGUYEN Albert	20%	48%	27%	5%	-	-
37	STOLL Fuller	20%	47%	27%	6%	-	-
37	LI Thomas	2%	17%	39%	32%	8%	-
39	RIORDAN Robert	26%	40%	25%	8%	1%	-	-
40	LEE Yukyeong	29%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-
41	WHITE Kevin	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-
41	CUMMINGS Aaron	11%	40%	37%	11%	1%	-
43	RANDALL Kiara	48%	41%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.