Remenyik ROC and RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 2:00 PM

Evanston, IL - Evanston, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CANNON Caiden C.	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
2	LI Simon A.	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	23%
3	ANDERSON Colton J.	-	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
3	FREEDMAN Samuel E.	-	-	5%	26%	49%	20%
5	ZHAO Jason L.	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
5	LYUTIKOV Yegor	4%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
7	ROBINSON Keegan B.	-	-	1%	7%	30%	46%	16%
8	WITTENBERG Jackson H.	-	8%	30%	39%	19%	3%
9	OAKLAND Brennan D.	-	2%	11%	34%	41%	11%
10	VAN BUREN Brett J.	-	-	6%	26%	46%	20%	2%
11	YI Stephen K.	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	24%
12	FORTUNE Alexander J.	4%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
13	CHO Jeremy Y.	3%	19%	42%	29%	6%	-
14	GLOVER James	-	6%	25%	42%	26%	2%
15	GRANT Lachlan K.	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
16	CONWAY Brett	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
17	CALDARARU Sorin	18%	51%	26%	4%	< 1%	-	-
18	NOWAK Joseph A.	1%	12%	34%	38%	14%	2%
19	NEWHARD Noah A.	1%	8%	29%	41%	19%	2%
20	WANG Duke R.	3%	20%	38%	29%	8%	1%
21	WILLETT Luc G.	6%	32%	43%	17%	2%	-
22	PALWAI Suhas	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-	-
23	ANGLIN Benjamin S.	3%	24%	40%	26%	6%	1%
24	SANTOS Carlos R.	32%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
24	JI Aidan Y.	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
26	WATT Xander	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
27	LIU Jacob B.	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
28	DAYTON Elijah	1%	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
29	BIESIADA Jan	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
30	BROSS James	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-
31	CHEN Yucheng	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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