The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

2024 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Saber

Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Rockland Community College (Eugene Levy Fieldhouse) - None

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HENDERSON Louis	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	23%
2	ISAYENKO Daniel	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
3	LIM JUWANA Maximilian	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	13%
3	KOREN George	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
5	SHAPIRO Leo	-	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%
6	ZHANG Howard	-	1%	10%	31%	39%	18%	2%
7	CHEN Leo	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
8	LEVY Daniel	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
9	ZHAO Alexander	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
10	TERENTIEV Michael	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
11	SUH Ethan	-	-	2%	11%	34%	40%	13%
12	PARK Sean	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
13	HU Simon	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
14	ZALETAEV Jacob	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	14%	2%
15	HAGN Maximilian	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
16	NARAYAN Rishi	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
17	CIECIEREGA MATTHEW	-	1%	10%	28%	37%	20%	4%
18	MOTOV Max	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%
19	SOLEJ Miles	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
20	LI kevin	29%	41%	23%	7%	1%	-	-
21	CHAN Brady	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%
22	LEE Shane G.	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%	1%
23	ALUF William	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
24	MAKLIN David	-	3%	17%	38%	31%	10%	1%
25	KATZ Isaac	28%	41%	23%	7%	1%	-	-
26	LIUZHANG Ben	6%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
27	ZHANG Mark	7%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
28	BLACK Bauer	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
29	JACOBS Eitan	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
30	PARK Layne	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
31	GILBERT Ari	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
32	BROOKS Grant	17%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
33	SUH Jordan	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
34	PASSMAN Julian	7%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-	-
35	ILICHEV Timur	1%	10%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
36	HUANG Lucas	13%	35%	35%	14%	3%	-	-
37	WONG Jacob	9%	32%	36%	18%	5%	1%	-
38	SABINO Bennett	3%	16%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
39	KULJIEV Boyan	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
40	GU Viljo Weihan	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.