South Coast RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Saber

Saturday, March 9, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Exhibit Halls A & B - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Elaine	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
2	LEI Zitong (Meya)	-	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
3	CHEN Colette	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
3	JIANG Evelyn	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	24%
5	YUEN Nicole	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
6	CHEN Elaine	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	9%
6	WONG Natalie	1%	9%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
8	LIN Abbey	5%	24%	36%	25%	9%	2%	-
9	JOHNSON Heaven	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
10	LIAO Jieni	-	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	15%
11	YU Stella	-	4%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
12	WANG Jiayi	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
13	CHANG Kaitlyn	8%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
14	LIN Annika	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
15	KIM Alexia	1%	10%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
16	KIM Saeren	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
17	NING Lynn	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	16%	2%
18	GAIKWAD Ashmiee	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	6%
19	CHAN Jolene	-	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
20	LIN Ariel	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
21	NGUYEN Summer	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
22	SUNG Isabella	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
23	MARTINEZ MARIA	-	3%	16%	33%	33%	14%	2%
24	YU Skylar	-	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
25	KIM Satie	-	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
26	LIU kai yin aria	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	6%
27	HWANG Charlotte	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
28	WONG Cerise	-	6%	23%	36%	25%	8%	1%
29	LONG Jessie	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
30	HALPERN Athena	3%	20%	37%	28%	10%	1%	-
31	CAI Veronica	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	1%
32	RIGBY Ellie	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
33	MUNGUIA Mila	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
34	PARK Chloe	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
35	KIRBY Skye	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
36	PANCHAL Arya	46%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
37	HU Ashley	-	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
38	SEAL Ayda	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-	-
39	VILLAMATER Mia Franchesca	5%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
40	KIM Yeju	-	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	2%
41	KIM Alice	17%	43%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
42	CAI Joanna	4%	24%	38%	25%	8%	1%	-
43	ZHAO Abbie	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
44	ASPIRAS Avery	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
45	CAMACHO Keila	24%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
46	LEE Madeleine	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
47	MEI Chloe	53%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-
48	DANG Madeleine	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.